Figuring Out Your Risks

The best way to start preparing is to do a threat assessment and figure out what it is that you are actually at most risk for.  Here are some places to check to do a general threat assessment:

• The CDC has plenty of data on the most common health risks.
• You can Google for your state's climate risks.
• You can also Google for the top hazards for your state.
• By Googling threat assessment for your state you might turn up some interesting information.
• You can find a wildfire threat assessment tool here.
• The US Drought Map can be found here and the climate assessment tool can be found here.
• You can Google for your local crime map.
• And your county and/or city should have a hazard mitigation plan posted online.
• Your state's Department of Emergency Management's website should have lots of threat information.
• As should your county's DEM website.

National Preparedness Month Day 10--Threat Assessment

Part of being prepared is knowing what to be prepared for and part of knowing what to be prepared for is to do a threat assessment.  The most basic type of threat assessment you can do is to determine what types of hazards you are most likely to encounter where you live.  If the hazard occurs, how would it impact you and your community, then knowing what the impact may be, how would you prepare for such incidents?

There are a number of threat assessments which have already been done that can help you begin.  Each state has done threat assessments to determine what risks there are state-wide, and most counties and cities have done similar assessments.  Simply Google your state, county, and city to find similar plans for your area.  It's pretty dry reading but will give you a general overview of hazards you should be concerned with. 

Next, after doing some research, make a list of the natural and man-made hazards most likely to impact your area.  When you walk and drive around your community, make note of any specific hazards you see which could become future problems (like creeks near your home that could flood, natural gas pipelines that run near your home, etc).

Your list of threats should include personal (home fire, school shooter if you have kids in school), man-made (natural gas pipeline, railroad nearby which often is use to transport petroleum and chemicals, high profile tourist area, etc), and natural (hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding, etc) threats.  Put your list of potential hazards in order from most likely to happen to least likely to happen.  Eventually you want to become familiar with all types of hazards--from tsunamis and pandemics to tornadoes and wildfires since you never know what might happen when you are on vacation--but your top priority should be to prepare for what is most likely to happen in your area.

Google "how to prepare for (hazard)" for each of your most likely hazards then make a list of things you need to do.  If hurricanes are common in your area, you will find thousands and thousands of 'how to prepare for a hurricane' pages online.  Study these pages and then create a "to do" list to prepare for a hurricane which might include: determining how to evacuate, buying storm shutters, signing up for community alerts, checking your home insurance to see if you are covered for hurricanes, etc.

The more you know about common disasters in your area and the more prepared you are ahead of time, the more likely you are to survive when a disaster unexpectedly hits.

5 Things to Be Concerned About Now

In no particular order...

1. The possibility of a world-wide pandemic.
2. Our crumbling infrastructure.
3. The possibility of having NO potable water at all.  For days on end.
4. Natural disasters (such as wildfires).
5. Various international crisis (Ukraine, Gaza, Iraq, etc)

Do you have a plan to deal with these potential threats?

Your Personal Threat Assessment

When you are planning for disaster, it's a good idea to take a minute (or ten) and figure out just what kind of disasters you are planning for.  When many people begin prepping, they often go out and start by spending a lot of money on prepping gear they see others collecting--rifles, ammo, Ghilli suits(?!), expensive generators--basically the typical "prepper stuff" that, quite honestly, you probably won't ever use.

A better way to go about planning--so you get a good picture of your actual needs and as a way to spend your money wisely--is to determine what the most likely threats facing you are before you start buying stuff.

Take a look at these possible threats and write down a list of which threats pertain to you and your family:

• Weather (hurricanes, tornadoes, winter storms, flooding, extreme heat)
• Man-made disasters (plane crash, chemical spill, fire, grid failure, nuclear disaster, environmental disaster, biological disaster)
• Natural disasters (landslides, wildfires, earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)
• Violence (home invasion robbery, school shooting, random street violence)
• Financial disaster (job loss, economic collapse, loss of pension/retirement savings, debt)
• Family crisis (divorce, serious illness, death of family member)
• TEOWAWKI (no power, no water, no fuel, no police services, no medical services, no food, war)

Next put the items on your list in order from most likely to least likely.  TEOTWAWKI is probably way down on the bottom of your list while debt and winter storms are most likely at the top of your list.  My list looks like this:

• Extreme heat (in summer, here in Las Vegas)
• Flooding (it happens to be monsoon season here)
• Plane crash (planes fly low over the city all day and night)
• Home invasion robbery (always a possibility)
• Random street violence (ditto)
• Economic collapse/loss of pension and Social Security
• Serious illness
• Death of a spouse
• Grid failure (loss of power, loss of water)

Notice that a lot of the disasters in the first list didn't make it to my list:  school shooting (we have no kids in school), hurricanes (these don't happen in Las Vegas), debt (we don't have debt), volcanic eruption (no volcanoes here), NBC disaster (a very slight possibility but very unlikely as there are no chemical/biological warfare/nuclear warheads nearby...that I know of, here), job loss (we're retired).

You can now focus your preps based on your list, from most likely disaster, to least likely.  In my case:

• Extreme heat: we have an AC system that is maintained regularly, fans, a freezer full of ice, and know how to open the house when it is cool and shut up the house when it is hot to keep the heat out.
• Flooding: after a year of keeping track of how flooding goes here during monsoon season, I have noticed that the area where we live has been designed to move rain water to a wash near our house.  Landscaping also helps, as well as the ability to make sandbags if necessary.
• Plane crash: there isn't much we can do.  Fortunately the planes don't go directly over our house but this is still a random disaster than could affect everyone in the city (first aid training helps...minutely).
• Home invasion robbery:  we have taken security measures around our home, don't answer the door to people we don't know, if we sell something on Craigslist we meet the buyer elsewhere, and we have firearms within reach at all times.
• Random street violence:  I carry concealed occasionally, we generally avoid crowds, I am always aware of my surroundings and tend to watch any people within the vicinity, and I wouldn't hesitate to confront physical violence with physical violence (obviously a last resort). 
• Loss of pension and social security:  This would be a problem as these two sources of income make up the bulk of our monthly income however we have a sizable emergency fund, are debt free so can live on very little, and I have multiple small sources of income.
• Serious illness: as we get older, this becomes more of a possibility.  Fortunately we have exceptional health insurance which alleviates the financial burden of a serious illness, we have an emergency fund (a serious illness usually necessitates many trips to the hospital/doctor, possible extended care, etc), we have our Wills/Power of Attorney in order, and we take steps to keep ourselves in good health (exercise, nutritious food, no stress, etc).
• Death of a spouse: again, this becomes an issue as we get older.  We have our Wills/Power of Attorney in order, I have a list of things for the spouse to do should I die (and a similar list for the opposite), our cremations/funerals are pre-planned and paid for, and insurance is up to date.
• Grid failure: loss of power would be disastrous here (especially during the summer) as would the loss of water (it's a desert here after all).  To mitigate these possibilities we store an inordinate amount of water and have alternatives for heating and cooking.  We don't have a generator as I don't think this is necessary here and storing the extra fuel needed for it would be difficult (although for some people who lose power regularly all winter this would be a necessity and storing fuel would be less of an issue).

Besides these basic preps for the most common disasters we are likely to encounter, there are some basic general preps that would help in any disaster (having a BOB at the ready, an evacuation plan, etc...which shall be covered in later posts).

The Threat Assessment

Right after we move into a new place and I run through the 35 questions about our new home, I then proceed to conduct a simple threat assessment.  Here's what it entails:

• First, make sure there are no threats inside your home, using the list above.
• Next, do a simple walk around your neighborhood and maybe talk to a few of the neighbors and determine if there are any threats in your neighborhood (this can be anything from living right next to a chemical plant to hearing the neighbors fight every night to seeing graffiti repeatedly in your neighborhood).
• You can also check and see what kind of threat assessment tools are provided by your local police department, such as this, this, and this.
• I also sign up for alerts (either via text messages, email, or FaceBook) from the local fire department, department of emergency management, and Nixle for my area.
• Finally, I Google "threat analysis" for my city and state and see what other work is being done in this area that can shed some light on current threats to my area such as this, this, and this.

By conducting a threat assessment of your local area, you will be well positioned to plan for situations that are most likely to affect you.  This will allow you to fine-tune the contents of your BOB, take pre-emptive action towards threats if necessary, and plan for disasters that are more than likely to happen (ie: you don't want to spend your time planning for a tornado if the area you live in is much more likely to be hit by an earthquake, etc).